Carbon Tracker on stranded assets

Carbon Tracker is an independent financial think tank which provides in-depth analysis on the impactof climate change on capital markets and investment in fossil fuels, mapping risk, opportunity and the route to a low carbon future.Carbon Tracker is a team of financial, energy and legal experts with a ground breaking approach to limiting future greenhouse gas emissions.

We view them as "the" source for data and analysis on the question of "stranded assets."  The Carbon Tracker team won the Guardian Sustainable Business Award for Innovation in Communicating Sustainability in May 2014 and again in May 2015.

Reports on Carbon Bubble and Stranded Assets

                                                                                                     

BluePrint Series - April 2015: The Fossil Fuel Transition Blueprint 

The steps the fossil industry and individual companies will need to take to adopt their business practices.

 

Demand Destruction - October 2015: Lost in Transition: How the energy sector is missing potential demand destruction

The greatest risks and opportunities will arise from more dramatic shifts rather than business as usual or incremental change.

 

Carbon Asset Risk  - Oct 2015: Carbon Asset Risk: from rhetoric to action

Toward establishing a framework for analysis and corporate and investor response.

 

Report Issued November 2011:  The original math: in 2011, the world had used one-third of its 2000-2050 carbon budget of 886GtCO2, leaving 565GtCO2; proven world reserves equalled 2795 GtCO2; and fossil fuel reserved held by the top 100 listed coal and top 100 listed oil and gas companied represented total emissions of 745GtCO2. This math rendered 80% of assets technically unburnable.

 

Report issued April 2013: This report updates and extends analysis provided in the original 2011 “Unburnable Carbon” report and, crucially, reveals the extent to which over $6trillion of fossil fuel capex is likely to become wasted if the trend of developing unburnable reserves continues over the next decade. 

 

 

Reports on Oil - carbon supply cost curves and analyses of sector & company risks

 

Report issued May 2014: In collaboration with Energy Transition Advisors, this report focuses on oil demand, supply, and capex to provide a risk analysis that helps investors understand their risk exposure to high cost, high carbon projects.

 

Accompanying technical papers:

  • Oil Demand: comparing projections and examining risks

  • From Capex Growth to Capital disciple? Cost risk and return trends in the upstream oil industry

  • Oil Supply: Evaluating financial risk to oil capex

 

Report issued February 2015: In light of recent oil price volatility and some significant cuts to fossil fuel capital expenditure, Carbon Tracker launch a new tool to monitor changes in the flow of fossil fuel capex and analyse what these changes mean for future carbon emissions.

 

CAPEX TRACKER: A LEAD INDICATOR OF GLOBAL WARMING                                                                                                       

 

Report issued May 2015: In the wake of an increasingly volatile oil market, this report analyses the extent to which the credit arrangements of U.S. shale oil and gas companies can adapt to a new low price environment if it persists. Focusing on five of the largest pure-play U.S. E&P shale oil and gas companies, Carbon Tracker shows that debt arrangements of these companies are vulnerable to downside from current commodity price levels

 

 

Reports on Coal - carbon supply cost curves and analyses of sector & company risks

 

Report issued September 2014: In collaboration with Energy Transition Advisors and the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, this report consists of a package of details analyses of coal supply, demand, and financial trends. In particular, it highlights that $112billion of future capex in potential thermal coal production (excl. China) is at risk of become stranded.

 

Accompanying technical papers:

  • Coal Market Industry and Financial Trends

  • Coal Supply

  • Coal Demand

 

UNBURNABLE CARBON 2013: WASTED CAPITAL AND STRANDED ASSETS

 

CARBON SUPPLY COST CURVES: EVALUATING FINANCIAL RISK TO OIL CAPITAL EXPENDITURES

 

Report issued March 2015The market for thermal coal is in structural decline in the United States. This report finds that, in addition to the shale gas revolution, the U.S. coal markets have been pounded by a combination of cheaper renewables, energy efficiency measures, rising construction costs, and a rash of legal challenges.

 

Report issued June 2015: Carbon Tracker analyses the EU five largest power generators - EDF, GDF Suez, E.ON, and RWE – to understand why, during the period 2008-2013, they lost 37% of their value on a market-cap basis. Furthermore, it assesses Europe’s future market conditions to analyse the viability of new coal. 

 

U.S. SHALE OIL AND GAS: GOING OVER THE HEDGE?

 

 

Fossil-fuel company disclosure practices and strategy

 

Report issued October 2014: In partnership with Ceres, CDP and CDSB, Carbon Tracker has assessed the responses from over 80 fossil fuel companies to a questionnaire sent to over 200 listed entities, looking at how they report on climate risk.

 

CARBON SUPPLY COST CURVES: EVALUATING FINANCIAL RISK TO COAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURES

 

Report issued April 2015The first in the “Blueprint Series” – a roadmap for the fossil fuel industry and individual companies to transition their business models to deliver a climate secure global energy system – outlines a ‘checklist’ of eight points for businesses to consider. 

 

U.S. COAL CRASH: EVIDENCE FOR STRUCTURAL CHANGE

 

COAL: CAUGHT IN THE EU UTILITY DEATH SPIRAL

 

RECOGNIZING RISK, PERPETUATING UNCERTAINTY: A BASELINE SURVEY OF CLIMATE DISCLOSURES

 

THE FOSSIL FUEL TRANSITION BLUEPRINT